Bilateral J-Curve among Iran and Selected Partners

Document Type : Practical

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Abstract

Empirical studies about the short and long run effect of exchange rate on current account can be put into two categories. The first group is studies which have used foreign trade data in aggregate level, i.e. foreign trade data among a country and the world, and the second one is those including present study that is mainly related to recent studies and employs bilateral foreign trade data among a country and its partners.The purpose of this paper is to study the existence of bilateral J curve among Iran and selected Asian and European Partners including China, United Arab Emirates, France, Germany and Switzerland by using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model and annual data during time period 1979-2006. Based on the obtained results, only the bilateral J Curve among Iran and United Arab Emirates is confirmed. Furthermore, the time interval for improving the current account among Iran and its partners is different. It’s mentionable that all estimated coefficients are stable based on CUSUMSQ and CUSUM Tests.

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